HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 1999
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANOTHER TRMM OVERPASS FROM THE NRL
MONTERY TROPICAL CYCLONE HOMEPAGE CONFIRM THAT THE CENTER IS WELL
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS
SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...SO JOSE IS BEING UPGRADED AGAIN.  NO
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS PREDICTED SINCE SSTS DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK.  SINCE JOSE IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT THAT TIME.
 
THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 030/18.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO ADJUSTED TO THE
EAST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE AVN MODEL...WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING JOSE FAIRLY WELL AT THIS
TIME.

THE RADII OF 12 FOOT SEAS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED AFTER COORDINATION WITH
THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 30.6N  60.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 34.5N  57.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 41.0N  52.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 48.0N  45.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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