HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 28 1999
 
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 2223Z...WHEN THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 37 KT AT 1500 FT AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1002 MB.  AT THAT TIME THE CENTER WAS ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND WAS MOVING LITTLE.  ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...IT APPEARS HAVE RESUMED A MOSTLY
WESTWARD MOTION OF 280/5.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ESTIMATE...AS THERE IS A MID-LEVEL VORTEX TO
THE WEST OF THE PRESUMED CENTER THAT IS MOVING MORE RAPIDLY
WESTWARD.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS THAT
SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST WITHIN 18-30 HOURS. 
BEYOND THAT...A TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
COULD IMPART A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES
SOME FAIRLY ROUGH TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AMERICA.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE COLOMBIAN METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE REPORTS THAT SAN ANDRES RECEIVED 3.58 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
LAST SIX HOURS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 30 KT...WITH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES 0F 30 AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  THE SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANT LESSENING OF THE
EASTERLY SHEAR NOW OVER THE DEPRESSION...AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 52
KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT LESS
AGGRESSIVE.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 11.7N  81.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 11.8N  82.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 12.0N  83.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 12.5N  85.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     31/0000Z 13.0N  87.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     01/0000Z 14.5N  90.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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