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TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 1999
 
THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT PASS
THROUGH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FOUND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
(1500 FT) WIND OF 43 KNOTS...A SURFACE WIND OF 35 KNOTS AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT...AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER CORRESPONDING TO WHERE THE RECON
OBSERVED THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10 KNOTS. ON THIS HEADING KATRINA
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY SHOWING A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS
SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE UK METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE MODEL.  KATRINA IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY 36 HOURS AND MAY
RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE
OVER LAND.
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 13.6N  83.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 14.5N  84.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     30/1800Z 15.5N  85.7W    20 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     31/0600Z 16.4N  86.7W    25 KTS
48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.1N  87.3W    30 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 18.5N  88.0W    30 KTS
 
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