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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 13 1999
 
A US AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED
THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND REPORTED A NOT-TOO-WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER.  DEPRESSION ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE BASIS OF THIS
INFORMATION.  SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF DEEP
CONVECTION...BUT NOT WELL ORGANIZED...SO THERE ARE NO FAST CHANGES
TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE 30 KNOT MAX ONE-MIN WINDS EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS WHEN SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 170/05.  ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS
SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 DAYS...GREATLY
AMPLIFYING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.  THIS EXTENDS THE WESTERLIES SOUTH
TO THE DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO RESPOND WITH AN EASTWARD
MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS
CLOSE TO THE UKMET...GFDL...AND NAVY NOGAPS MODELS.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LOCATED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...NEAR AND
SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...AND JUST WEST OF JAMAICA.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 16.5N  81.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N  81.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.7N  80.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 15.8N  78.8W    30 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  77.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N  72.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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