HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT NOV 13 1999

THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY
EASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY DECREASED VERTICAL SHEAR...AS
SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM BY 24 HOURS. 
THIS COULD HAPPEN SOONER IF THE CURRENT ORGANIZING TREND IS
MAINTAINED.

SATELLITE FIXES HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED
IMAGERY...WHICH ENHANCES LOW CLOUDS...SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NOW
HEADED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.  A LARGE AND VIGOROUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC
VORTICITY MAXIMUM...CURRENTLY MOVING FROM CANADA TO THE GREAT
LAKES...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN 1-2 DAYS AND
STRENGTHEN THE EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE
ASSOCIATED WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE
PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG A TRAJECTORY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER IN THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD BECAUSE OF A FASTER ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION...8 KNOTS.   

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 15.9N  80.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.7N  79.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  77.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N  75.9W    35 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 16.7N  74.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N  69.5W    40 KTS
 
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