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HURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 16 1999
 
FIXES FROM RECONNAISSANCE PLANES AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT LENNY
IS MOVING ABOUT 070/15 KNOTS.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS WOULD
RESULT ON A CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AND THEN NORTHEAST AROUND
THE DEVELOPING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS IS THE
SOLUTION INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  IN FACT...THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL
FORECASTS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A SLOW NORTHEAST TO NORTH TRACK
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.   IF THIS MATERIALIZES...IT
COULD RESULT IN EVEN WORSE CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA UNDER WARNING. 
ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED SOON AGAINST THIS DANGEROUS
HURRICANE.  

SINCE THE HURRICANE IS COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST FACING UNPROTECTED HARBORS.  KLAUS IN NOVEMBER 1984
PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE MARINE DAMAGE TO THIS AREA AND IT WAS ONLY A
TROPICAL STORM.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS IS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE
WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES...AN INTERMITTENT EYE AND GOOD
OUTFLOW.  DROPSONDES MEASURED 965 MB PRESSURE IN THE EYE...MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 107 KNOTS...AND MEASURED 96 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE.  THE EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE FROM 700 MB WAS 960 MB WITH PEAK
WINDS OF 112 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEN ADJUSTED TO 100 KNOTS.
THIS MAKES LENNY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE...THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. 
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR OR SO.
 
A CIRCULAR EYE IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 15.8N  68.2W   100 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.3N  66.3W   100 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 18.8N  64.3W   100 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N  62.0W    95 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N  60.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     19/1800Z 26.0N  56.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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