HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI NOV 19 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LENNY IS WEAKENING FAST. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
SHEARING BUT AT THE CIRRUS LEVEL.....IR IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE FAIR.  THE WEAKENING HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WHICH MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 994 MB.  LENNY IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS
TIME. SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT ALL THE FACTORS ARE AGAINST
STRENGTHENING.  SO...A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS LENNY
MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER....I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT RESTRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  
 
LENNY HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST 6 TO
12 HOURS...WHILE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION  BECAME BROAD AND POORLY
DEFINED.  A SERIES OF EASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COULD FINALLY PROVIDE ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO STEER
LENNY AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  MODELS INSIST ON TAKING LENNY TOWARD THE  
NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...CAPRICIOUS LENNY CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 17.5N  62.2W    60 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N  61.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N  60.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N  59.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 20.0N  58.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N  56.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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