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TROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT NOV 20 1999
 
RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING...THE LAST WE WILL HAVE ON
THIS SYSTEM...SHOW THAT LENNY IS NOT A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1000 MB
FROM TWO DROPSONDES...BOTH GUADELOUPE AND ANTIGUA...WELL TO THE
WEST...HAVE REPORTED LOWER PRESSURES.  WINDS FROM THE LAST EYE DROP
SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR AND REQUIRE THE
SURFACE CENTER TO BE A BIT SOUTH OF THE RECON FIX LOCATION.  THE
ONLY STRONG WINDS REPORTED AT THE 700 MB LEVEL WERE IN CONVECTION
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THESE WINDS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT.  SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE.  THE MOST RECENT INTENSITY
FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE.

LENNY IS FINALLY MAKING GOOD PROGRESS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 115/6.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TURNS LENNY FROM ITS
CURRENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
IMMEDIATELY IF NOT SOONER.  I AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL OF THIS...GIVEN
THE RECENT TRACK OF THE STORM...AN UNCONVINCING INITIALIZATION IN
THE AVN...AND THE POOR VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX. 
NONETHELESS...I HAVE MADE ONLY A MODEST EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE
OFFICIAL TRACK.

WITH LENNY MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EAST OF THE CENTER...ALL REMAINING WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED WITH
THIS ADVISORY.  ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD EXERCISE
DUE CAUTION UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 16.9N  60.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N  60.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N  58.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 18.2N  57.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 20.0N  56.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N  54.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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