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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN NOV 21 1999
 
IT HAS BEEN 21 HOURS SINCE THE LAST SURFACE REPORT OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...AND THERE ARE NEITHER SCATTEROMETER NOR LOW-CLOUD
WINDS AT THIS THRESHHOLD.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW OVER 100 MILES
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 30 TO 45 KT...WITH T NUMBERS OF 25-30 KT.  THEREFORE LENNY IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING ELONGATED IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST STAGE OF TERMINAL
DISSIPATION.

THE 6Z WIND FROM BUOY 41100 WAS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH
INDICATES THAT LENNY HAS FINALLY BEGUN ITS LONG-FORECAST LEFT TURN.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/8.  THE MULTI-SPECTRAL NIGHT IR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL VORTEX NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.  THIS IS
PRESUMBABLY THE VORTEX THE AVN HAS BEEN ANALYZING FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  LENNY...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THIS VORTEX BEFORE MODESTLY ACCELERATING
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN THE NEW HEADING OF THE
DEPRESSION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 16.6N  57.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 17.3N  56.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.7N  55.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     22/1800Z 20.2N  53.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     23/0600Z 21.5N  52.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     24/0600Z 24.0N  46.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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