HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 1999

THE EYE OF ADRIAN IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING.  MOREOVER...THE EXTEND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...
AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED.  THE CYCLONE IS NOT AS SYMMETRICAL
AS IT WAS EARLIER WITH CURRENT GOES-10 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING
THAT ADRIAN IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IN AGREEMENT WITH
ANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR
METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES...CIMSS. SST DATA SHOWS THAT ADRIAN
IS VERY NEAR THE 25C ISOTHERM.  THUS...ADRIAN HAS LIKELY PEAKED AND
IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
ESTIMATES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIDO AS ADRIAN ENCOUNTERS
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...NEAR 21-22C BY 72 HOURS.

SATELLITE-BASED POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ADRIAN HAS BEEN
MOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AND HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/8 KT.  THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
STEER IT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH P91E AND CLIPER.   

THE 00Z OBSERVATION FROM SOCORRO ISLAND...18.7N/110.9W...SHOW THAT
THE WINDS ARE NORTH AT 10 KT WITH THE CENTER ABOUT 50 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  BASED ON THIS DATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS.  

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 18.1N 110.9W    80 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 18.3N 112.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 18.6N 113.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N 115.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 20.0N 119.5W    30 KTS
 
NNNN