HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUN 21 1999
 
ADRIAN IS NOW AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE CI 4.0...3.5...AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY.
ADRIAN IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. FURTHER
WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY
COLD SSTS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPLETELY DISSIPATES THE
CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/04. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION OR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN. THE FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE BAMM AND THE BAMS.

A LATE REPORT FROM SOCORRO ISLAND INDICATED WINDS 070/40 KT AND A
993.0 MB PRESSURE AT 12Z.
 
BEVEN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 18.8N 112.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 19.1N 112.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 19.6N 113.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 19.9N 114.9W    25 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED... 
 
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