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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 05 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...AS INDICATED BY AN INCREASE IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS.
THERE IS A CURVED BAND FORMING TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION WHICH IS OVER THE POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  MORE
IMPORTANT...IS THE OBSERVATION FROM THE SHIP KSBG WHICH REPORTED
30-KNOT EASTERLY WIND NEAR THE CENTER AND A PRESSURE OF 1003.0 MB.
A 24-HOUR HISTORY OF THIS SHIP INDICATES THAT ITS PRESSURE MAY BE
TOO LOW.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS
AT THIS TIME.
 
THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE OCEAN AHEAD IS WARM...SHIPS INTENSITY
FORECAST MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 79 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.
THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12.  THERE IS A WEAKENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. THIS
MAY RESULT IN A TRACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXTEND
THE RIDGE WESTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS SUGGESTING A TURN TO THE WEST.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL TRACK MODELS.   IN ANY CASE...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 12.3N 101.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 12.7N 103.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 13.0N 105.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 13.5N 107.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 14.0N 109.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N 113.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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