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TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND
BANDING DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT ITS UPGRADE TO TROPICAL STORM
DORA.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND
25 KT FROM AFWA.  OUTFLOW IS DECENT ON THE WESTERN SIDE AND SSTS ARE
NEARLY 29C.  THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE NO REASON WHY DORA SHOULD NOT
STRENGTHEN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH
WITHIN 48 HOURS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 285/15.  THE NOGAPS MODEL
MOVES DORA INITIALLY ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...BUT THIS FORECAST IS
QUESTIONABLE BASED ON A VERY POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE DISTURBANCE
THAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM EUGENE.  ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE GFDL TURNS
DORA MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS A TURN
TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST...IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING
AHEAD OF THE STORM.  THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY ALTERNATIVE
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.  COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF EUGENE...WHICH
IS NOT MOVING AS FAST AS DORA...AND MAY COME INTO PLAY NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 13.4N 105.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 13.9N 107.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 14.6N 110.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 15.1N 113.1W    60 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 15.4N 115.2W    70 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 15.5N 119.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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