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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 1999

ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...DORA CONSISTS MAINLY OF A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF BANDING FEATURES.  TOPS HAVE
BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A
TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION.  INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KNOTS FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN WITH THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE COULD YIELD A HIGHER WIND SPEED ESTIMATE...BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS MEASUREMENT...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER
LOCATION WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.  VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO
BE WEAK AHEAD OF DORA AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM IS
FAIR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  

MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/10.  THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN
SHOWS THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR 125W NORTH OF 25N GRADUALLY
LIFTING OUT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ESTABLISHED TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...AND MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 15.6N 113.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.9N 114.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 16.3N 116.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 16.7N 118.7W    80 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 17.0N 120.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.5N 124.0W    80 KTS
 
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