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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 11 1999
 
THE STRUCTURE OF DORA REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH AN EYE DIAMETER NEAR 15
NM.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 115
KT...AND THAT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY WITH A SLOW
DECREASE BASED ON SHIPS COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK.  THE DECREASE HAS BEEN SLOWED AS THERE IS LITTLE
CONTRIBUTION FROM VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR INCREASED WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK OF DORA BEING CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS
STORM... HURRICANE EUGENE... WHICH MAY HAVE MODERATED THE SSTS
SOMEWHAT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE
TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS AND SO SPEED HAS BEEN INCREASED SOMEWHAT ABOVE
THAT OF PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  THE TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE BAM DEEP.
 
FARRELL/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 14.7N 124.4W   115 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.9N 126.2W   115 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 129.0W   110 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 132.0W   105 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.5N 135.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 15.5N 140.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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