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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999
 
DORA IS WEAKENING...WITH THE EYE DISAPPEARING DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 102 KT...SO
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 100 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH
FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS DORA MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER
WATER...UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT. THE SHIPS
MODEL KEEPS DORA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/19. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO 24
HOURS AGO...WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DORA AND A BREAK
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR AND WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SPLIT BETWEEN TWO POSSIBILITIES. THE
FIRST...SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL...BAMD...BAMM...AND LBAR...IS FOR A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF
HAWAII. THE SECOND...SUPPORTED BY THE P91E...P91UK...UKMET...AND
BAMS...IS FOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NORTHERN CLUSTER OF MODELS AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF DORA WEAKENS FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE A GREATER CHANCE OF A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION.

THE 50 KT WINDS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE OBSERVED STORM
MOTION AND WEAKENING.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON DORA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 15.6N 140.6W   100 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.8N 143.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.2N 147.3W    80 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.8N 150.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 153.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 158.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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