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WTPA42 PHNL 180300
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST MON AUG 16 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DORA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY IS 4.5...77 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 80 KNOTS. LATEST ANIMATION SHOWS A
CONTINUED WEST MOVEMENT.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
ARE TIGHTLY PACKED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL PLACE THE STORM JUST
SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND BETWEEN 30 AND 36 HOURS. ISLAND. HOWEVER...
KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK
AND INTENSITY.
 
HABLUTZEL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0300Z 15.6N 161.7W    80 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 15.9N 164.4W    75 KTS
24HR VT     18/0000Z 16.4N 167.9W    70 KTS
36HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N 171.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N 175.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 178.5E    55 KTS