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WTPA42 PHNL 172100
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST TUE AUG 17 1999
 
DORA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY INTENSITY
ESTIMATES STILL CLASSIFY THE STORM AS A HURRICANE...BUT IS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS DORA AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH TO JOHNSTON ISLAND BY 2000 HST/0600Z AT WHICH TIME IT WILL
BE APPROXIMATELY 70 NAUTICAL MILES/80 STATUTE MILES TO THE SOUTH.
THE CONTINUED MOVEMENT NEAR 16 KT WILL RESULT IN A SUDDEN AND
POWERFUL SWELL/SURF SURGE AT JOHNSTON.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/16. ALL BUT ONE OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSELY
GROUPED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE.

HABLUTZEL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 15.5N 166.8W    70 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.6N 169.4W    70 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.9N 172.9W    65 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N 176.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 180.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 173.0E    60 KTS