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TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 05 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/08.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS
TURN THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THEN WEST OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS...EXCEPT THE LBAR WHICH STAYS NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...AS WAS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND MOVES THE CENTER TO WITHIN ABOUT 50 NMI OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED
FOR BAJA.

IN THE PAST TWO HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A TREMENDOUS BURSTING CDO
WITH VERY COLD TOPS...BUT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE 35
AND 45 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY FROM SAB AND TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT FORECAST TO 50 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS AND TO 65
KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  IF THIS VERY RECENT CDO PERSISTS...GREG COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE 48 HOURS.

LAWRENCE 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 20.4N 106.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N 107.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 21.9N 108.8W    55 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 22.2N 110.6W    60 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 22.5N 112.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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