HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 06 1999

THE BURSTING PATTERN CONTINUES ON IR IMAGERY...BUT THERE IS LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF BANDING.  CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
45 KNOTS.  SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS REASONABLY
FAVORABLE...SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER PASSES BY
CABO SAN LUCAS.

THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED BUT THE HEADING NOW APPEARS TO BE
NORTHWESTWARD.  STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT COME
SOON ENOUGH TO AVERT LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 21.0N 106.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 21.9N 107.8W    50 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 22.6N 109.4W    60 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 23.3N 111.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 23.8N 112.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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