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HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 07 1999
 
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE GREG IS...AT BEST...BARELY A
MINIMAL HURRICANE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM A CONVECTIVE
BAND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTER...
INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
GREG WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HOUR MOTION OF 315/4...ALTHOUGH RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE A MORE NORTHERLY SHORT TERM MOTION. A WELL
DEFINED ANTICYCLONE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS...ALTHOUGH AS SEEN
YESTERDAY...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE 72 HOUR FORECAST
POINTS BETWEEN A NORTHWEST MOTION AND A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE NORTH EARLY ON DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION.

SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON GREG...AND THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR THE
SOUTH END OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER
THAT... IT WILL ENCOUNTER COLDER WATER. THE COMBINATION OF THE THREE
EVENTS SHOULD PRODUCE WEAKENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS.

BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 22.6N 109.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 23.0N 110.2W    60 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 23.5N 111.4W    50 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.8N 112.8W    40 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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