HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 07 1999

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT GREG CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN.  HOWEVER...THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED UNDER A SMALL AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. DATA FROM THE AREA AND SHIP WVDG CLEARLY DEFINE THE
CIRCULATION AND LOCATION OF GREG WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WERE REPORTED EARLIER FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA.  
 
GREG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 6 KNOTS AND THIS TRACK IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... AS INDICATED BY MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER COOL
WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AT MUCH FASTER RATE AS SUGGESTED
BY SHIFOR.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 23.2N 110.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 23.6N 111.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N 112.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 24.2N 114.0W    25 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     11/0000Z 24.5N 117.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN