HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2000

VISIBLE METEOSAT IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AND THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE
DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
AS 270/15.  ALL GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO LBAR...A GOOD PERFORMER IN THE DEEP TROPICS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY PROBLEMATIC.  THERE HAS NEVER
BEEN MUCH DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL.  NONETHELESS...SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL...ON THE OTHER HAND...LOSES THE SYSTEM
AFTER ONLY 18 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z  9.6N  29.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z  9.5N  32.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z  9.7N  35.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 10.1N  39.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 10.5N  42.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 11.0N  49.0W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN