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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  65
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000
 
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BLOCKING HIGH.  PROGNOSTIC REASONING IS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALBERTO IS LIKELY TO BE ACCELERATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND HEADED FOR THE MARITIME PROVINCES...WHERE THE
TROUGH SHOULD AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
ALBERTO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE 50 N MI DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED
IN FAIRLY COLD CLOUD TOPS...ESPECIALLY FOR A HIGHER LATITUDE SYSTEM. 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN NEAR 90 KNOTS.  SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH OF 40N...SO ALBERTO IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER PASSING THIS LATITUDE.  THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 37.0N  48.0W    90 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 37.8N  47.9W    90 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 39.2N  47.7W    85 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 41.2N  47.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 44.0N  45.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     23/0600Z 53.0N  38.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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