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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  SATELLITE POSITIONS ARE ABOUT 90
N MI NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT 1500 FT FIXES...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THE SATELLITE CENTER IS A MID LEVEL ONE OR THAT THERE
IS MORE THAN ONE CENTER.  IN EITHER CASE...THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL
DEFINED.  THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS COMPLETELY ABSENT UNTIL THE LAST
TWO HOURS WHEN A COUPLE OF SMALL BURSTS OCCURRED.  BECAUSE OF THE
ABOVE AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF UNDER 25
KNOTS AND 1011 MB...CHRIS IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  THE SHIPS
MODEL FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION OVER WARM SSTS TO 65 KNOTS IN 72
HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS EXCEPT 5 KNOTS LESS. 
ANOTHER AIRCRAFT RECON MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR 12Z.

I HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...SO I
HAVE TRIED TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME
ACCELERATION.  THE STEERING IS PROVIDED BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 70-80 WEST LONGITUDE.
THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL FSU MODEL ARE TO THE LEFT OF THE OTHER
MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF ALL OF THE MODELS
BUT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE THE GFDL AND FSU MODELS. 
  
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 17.2N  56.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.8N  57.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N  59.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.8N  61.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N  63.7W    50 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 24.0N  69.5W    60 KTS
  
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