HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2000
 
DESPITE THE APPARENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT...LOW
SHEAR...ENOUGH CONVECTION...LOW-PRESSURE...WARM OCEAN...HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT...YOU NAME IT...THE DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN. I
AM SURE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF EXPLANATIONS AFTER THE FACT.
BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
PREVIOUS TREND FOR STRENGTHENING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED AT THIS TIME
AND IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS WEAKER THAN 12 HOURS AGO. 
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER. 
HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING A 25 KNOTS DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME UNTIL A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE AREA AND CHECK IF IS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION STILL PERSISTS.
 
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.   A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
 
MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS...SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SO MUCH THAT INTENSIFICATION IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY
TO OCCUR.  UNTIL THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE AREA... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH.
 
CUBA WILL PROBABLY DISCONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOON.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 21.2N  83.3W    25 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 22.5N  85.5W    25 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 24.5N  87.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 27.0N  87.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  87.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 34.0N  85.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
NNNN