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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2000

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND SO ADVISORIES ARE
INITIATED AT THIS TIME.  THE CENTER IS ELONGATED AND NOT WELL
DEFINED...MAKING THE INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION UNCERTAIN.  IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION IS AHEAD OF
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN THE CURRENT DECLINE IN
DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.  THE
QUIKSCAT DID SHOW SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 50 KT VECTORS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15.  THE AVN AND UKMET SHOW A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME NORTHWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION
DOES NOT RECURVE WITHIN 48 HOURS THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS
CLOSE TO THE LBAR.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING NOW...BUT THE AVN
SUGGESTS SHEAR MAY INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE UKMET DOES NOT SHOW SO MUCH SHEAR AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 11.7N  23.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 12.3N  25.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 13.0N  28.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 13.6N  30.6W    50 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 14.0N  33.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N  38.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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