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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2001
 
BARRY HAS DEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION...TOPS TO -81C AT TIMES...OVER 
AND AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCUALTION IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE 
CONVECTIVE BLOB...BUT RATHER IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION 
DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AT 05/0501Z 
FOUND 46 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT IN TWO LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE 
CENTER...BUT THE CREW WERE AVOIDING THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY 
HAVE MISSED SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE INCREASE IN THE RECON WINDS AND THE 
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN.  THIS IS ALSO 
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...T3.0... 
FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/05. NO SIGNIFICNAT CHANGE TO THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THERE REMAINS STRONG 
AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC MODELS ON TAKING BARRY INLAND IN 
ABOUT 24 TO 30 HOURS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST BETWEEN 
PANAMA CITY AND PENSACOLA. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER ARKANSAS DIGS 
SOUTHWESTWARD...THE BACKING FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD 
HELP TO LIFT THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST 
AND SOUTH OF BARRY SHOULD ALSO ACT TO MOVE THE STORM NORTHWARD 
THROUGH 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 
FORMING A REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH AN 
EAST-WEST ORIENTED 500 MB RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF BARRY.  THIS MAY 
RESULT IN BARRY MOVING ONLY A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND BEFORE STALLING 
OR DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST 
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE 
WEST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL 
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GUNS AND GUNA ENSEMBLE TRACKS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GULFSTREAM-IV DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THE 
200 MB FLOW HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BACKING AND BECOMING LESS HOSTILE FOR 
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL 
FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BACKING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY 
DIRECTION...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR AN ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD ACROSS 
BARRY.  RADAR DATA FROM EGLIN AFB AND MOBILE...ALONG WITH SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN SHOWING GOOD ROTATION IN THE CLOUD 
TOPS AROUND THE RECON CENTER POSITIONS SINCE ABOUT 0400Z.  THE GULF 
WATERS ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING... EVEN WITH THE 
CURRENT SHEAR CONDITONS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED 
CLOSELY AS IT BRINGS BARRY UP TO 52-58 KT AT LANDFALL.  THERE IS 
STILL A CHANCE THAT BARRY COULD REACH 60-65 KT INTENSITY JUST BEFORE 
LANDFALL.  RECON WILL BE BACK OUT TO INVESTIGATE BARRY AT AROUND 
1200Z...AND HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SURPISES IN THE 
INTENSITY.

ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED EAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA 
LATER TODAY IF BARRY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FRTHER TO THE EAST OR 
INTENSIFIES MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 27.8N  86.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N  86.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 30.2N  86.6W    55 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.8N  87.1W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     07/0600Z 32.9N  88.0W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
72HR VT     08/0600Z 33.8N  89.2W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 
 
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