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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2001
 
CHANTAL IS IN BAD SHAPE AT THE PRESENT TIME.  THE CENTER...SUCH AS
IT IS...APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SO POORLY ORGANIZED...
IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING.  NEVERTHELESS THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER CHANTAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING...COMMENCING
TOMORROW...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS OR GFDL 
GUIDANCE.
 
ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION...290/14...IS RATHER UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER.  THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW PROMINENT 500 RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN EARLIER MODEL
RUNS.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST AVN AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL FORECASTS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 16.5N  82.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N  83.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N  86.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W    70 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N  90.0W    65 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     22/1800Z 22.5N  92.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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