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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001
 
GABRIELLE CERTAINLY DOES NOT HAVE THE PATTERN OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.  IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL LOW.  IT HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A NON-SYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD AND IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...GABRIELLE HAS MAINTAINED PRESSURES LOWER
THAN 999 MB DESPITE MOVING OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR MORE WITH
40-KNOT WINDS. THIS IS PERHAPS BECAUSE IT IS NO LONGER PURELY 
TROPICAL. 

GABRIELLE IS ABOUT TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER AND IS FORECAST TO BE
MOVING OVER THE GULF STREAM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE WARM
WATERS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE
GABRIELLE COULD ALSO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

THE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. GABRIELLE SHOULD RESUME 
A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS 
IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. 

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BOTH INTENSITY OR TRACK 
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREFORE...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE  
UNCHANGED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 28.7N  80.8W    40 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 29.3N  80.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 30.0N  77.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 31.5N  74.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 33.0N  71.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 36.5N  65.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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