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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2001
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUD VECTORS DEFINING THE CIRCULATION AND DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
QUIKSCAT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...TO BE 305/6.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD
LOW...AND SOUTH OF A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MAJOR
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE U.S. EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD
TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW
AS RAPID A RECURVATURE AS INDICATED BY THE AVN OR UKMET...WHICH BOTH
SEEM TO INITIALIZE THIS SYSTEM A BIT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH.
THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE DEPRESSION IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE COLD LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. IF THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS PRESENT MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST...IT WOULD OPEN UP AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW IS IN FACT IMPROVING IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE AVN FORECASTS THIS LOW TO DRIFT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...A PATTERN WHICH WOULD
BE LESS CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE IN 60 H.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 25.1N 64.2W 25 KTS
12HR VT 22/0000Z 25.5N 65.0W 30 KTS
24HR VT 22/1200Z 26.6N 66.4W 35 KTS
36HR VT 23/0000Z 28.0N 67.7W 45 KTS
48HR VT 23/1200Z 29.5N 69.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 24/1200Z 32.5N 69.5W 60 KTS
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