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TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2001
 
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON PERSONNEL MADE A VALIANT EFFORT TO TRY AND 
CLOSE OFF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT WERE UNABLE TO DO SO.  
HOWEVER...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA STILL INDICATED SEVERAL SMALL 
VORTICES WITHIN A BROAD CLOSED-CIRCULATION. THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY 
OF 45 KT IS MAINTAINED BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 55 KT...T3.5...FROM TAFB AND 45 KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH SAB AND 
AFWA. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR TO THE EAST AND POOR 
ELSEWHERE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/16.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE INITIAL 
POSITION OF JERRY WAS MADE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION AND CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHERE A 
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOST LIKELY LOCATED.  THE RECON DATA ALSO 
INDICATES THAT THE BROAD CENTER OF JERRY IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
TRACK...AND THE LATEST UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE ALSO CONVERGED 
NICELY ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG 
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...AND EVEN THE AVN 
MODEL HAS HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST AND NO LONGER TAKES JERRY ACROSS 
PUERTO RICO.  THE ONLY OUTLIERS APPEAR TO BE THE GFDL AND GFDN 
MODELS...WHICH RACE JERRY WESTWARD AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE 
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER HONDURAS.  THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS WERE 
IGNORED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE 
ENVELOPE.  GIVEN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO 
THE NORTH...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
PERIODS SEEMS REASONABLE. ON THIS TRACK...JERRY WOULD BE NEAR  
EASTERN JAMAICA AND/OR SOUTHWESTERN HAITI IN 72 HOURS.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR REASONING. 
DEEP CONVECTION MAY FINALLY BE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER 
...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A STRENGTHENING TREND COULD BE DEVELOPING.  
THIS MAY BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A RECON REPORT OF 1004 MB IN ONE OF 
THE SMALL VORTICES NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD 
MASS.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS 
CONSERVATIVE UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND A PERISTENT CONVECTIVE 
PATTERN DEVELOPS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 14.1N  62.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 14.9N  64.8W    50 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 15.6N  67.1W    55 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.4N  69.4W    60 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 17.0N  71.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N  76.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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