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TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2001
 
JERRY IS NOT A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
A LARGE LOW CLOUD ROTATION CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL
ELONGATED WITH A SECONDARY CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST...WELL REMOVED
FROM THE CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER ONE TO THE SOUTH.
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY WHEN THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATES THE AREA LATER TODAY.

MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DISRUPTING
THE OUTFLOW...AND THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO.  THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.  IF JERRY SURVIVES A DAY OR SO...IT
COULD STRENGTHEN SINCE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A BETTER UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT.

JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOLLOWING
THE PATH OF IRIS.  THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO.  THERE IS A
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
JERRY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SLOWING DOWN AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 4 OR 5 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 14.3N  64.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N  67.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.5N  70.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 16.3N  72.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 17.0N  75.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N  79.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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