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TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE OCT 30 2001

LORENZO SHOWS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  WHILE PERIPHERAL SHIP REPORTS
AT 18Z DO NOT CONCLUSIVELY SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION...REPORTS OF
A 1012.2 MB PRESSURE FROM DRIFTING BUOY 41523 ABOUT 75 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AT 17Z SUGGESTS THAT LORENZO STILL HAS AT
LEAST CLOSED ISOBARS.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 005/18.  LORENZO WILL TURN MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY ABSORB LORENZO
IN 24-36 HR AND POSSIBLY LESS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
BEFORE THE ABSORPTION.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 33.8N  45.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     31/0600Z 36.6N  44.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     31/1800Z 41.6N  40.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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