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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU NOV 01 2001
MICHELLE IS STRENGTHENING. HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE
CENTER WITHIN THE VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...APPROACHING -90C. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 997 MB. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED
57-KNOT WINDS AT THE 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL EXITING THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KNOTS. ASIDE
FROM SOME MODEST SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...CONDITIONS FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION. THREE OF FIVE STATISTICALLY-DERIVED CRITERIA FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION ARE ALSO SATISFIED...GIVING A PROBABILITY OF
ABOUT 12 PERCENT FOR A 30 KT OR GREATER WIND SPEED INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS QUITE
CONSERVATIVE. HISTORICALLY THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN HAS SEEN SOME
VERY STRONG HURRICANES...WITH THE MOST RECENT EXAMPLE BEING IRIS
JUST LAST MONTH.
LATEST FIXES SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
BASED ON LONGER-TERM AVERAGES THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/4.
NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT A VERY WEAK STEERING
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF THE
NCEP...U.K. MET OFFICE AND NOGAPS GLOBAL MODELS IS FOR A SLOW
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ALONG
MORE OR LESS THE SAME TRAJECTORY.
IN THE LONGER TERM...THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS FEATURE COULD
INDUCE A SIGNIFICANT RIGHT TURN OF MICHELLE...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTIES IN 96-120 HOUR TRACK FORECASTS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 16.6N 83.5W 50 KTS
12HR VT 01/1800Z 17.4N 83.9W 60 KTS
24HR VT 02/0600Z 18.4N 84.3W 65 KTS
36HR VT 02/1800Z 19.3N 84.5W 70 KTS
48HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 84.5W 75 KTS
72HR VT 04/0600Z 21.5N 84.5W 85 KTS
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