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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2001
 
FLOSSIE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS ALSO 
DEVELOPED A CLOUD-FILLED EYE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS 
BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 
KT...T4.0...FROM TAFB AND THE APPEARANCE OF THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE.  
THE EYE FEATURE WAS ALSO EVIDENT EARLIER IN 27/1335Z SSMI MICROWAVE 
IMAGERY.   UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE 
OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/5.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  FLOSSIE HAS FINALLY MADE 
THE TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THAT THE AVN HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE BAM MODELS ALSO NOW 
AGREE ON THIS TRACK...EXCEPT THAT NOGAPS TURNS FLOSSIE BACK TO THE 
NORTHEAST AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE SIMILAR TO 
NOGAPS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE OF THE AVN MODEL 
AND AGREEMENT BY THE LATEST UKMET RUN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK 
CALLS FOR FLOSSIE TO REMAIN ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER THAT.
 
AS FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM COOLER SSTS...SOME STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE.  THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN 
SHOULD ALSO AID THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY 
MODEL BRINGS FLOSSIE TO 86 KT IN 36 HOURS...AND THIS DEVELOPMENT 
TREND WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 19.8N 114.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.6N 114.6W    70 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 19.4N 115.2W    80 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 19.3N 115.8W    85 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 19.2N 116.4W    85 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 117.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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