HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI NOV 02 2001
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON OCTAVE WITH VIRTUALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...DUE TO CONSTRAINTS...ARE 
55 AND 45 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 
KNOTS. WITH NO SIGN OF THE SHEAR LETTING UP AND COOLER SSTS 
AHEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING AND 
DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/07.  THE TRACK FORECAST INDICATES 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 
CONTINUE A SLOW MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS IN LINE WITH  
THE BAM-SHALLOW...UKMET...AND AVIATION MODELS AND TO THE LEFT OF THE 
PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
FORECASTER COBB/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 18.5N 130.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.1N 131.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 19.9N 133.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
NNNN