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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2002

SURFACE...RADAR...UPPER-AIR...AND SATELLITE REPORTS INDICATE THAT 
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF 
MEXICO TO SOUTH CAROLINA HAS DEVELOPED WARM-CORE TROPICAL 
CHARACTERISTICS AND HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE 45 MILES 
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTTERAS. AT 18Z...SHIP ZCAQ8 REPORTED SOUTHERLY 
WINDS OF 34 KT ABOUT 85 MILES EAST OF THE CENTER IN SOME HEAVY 
SQUALLS. HOWEVER...DATA CHECKS BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER 
INDICATE THAT THE WIND REPORTS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGH...SO THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS MADE A SOLID 30 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH HAS BEEN 
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/17. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE 
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT AN EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION THAT KEEPS THE 
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. GRADUAL 
ACCELERATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE 
IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER THAT AS THE SYSTEM 
INTERACTS WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BECOMES A BAROCLINIC OR HYBRID 
MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK 
CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE AVN...NOGAPS...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS.

GIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE 
FACT THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARMER GULFSTREAM 
TONIGHT...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM SEEMS REASONABLE 
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 36 HOURS...BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS 
EXPECTED AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST MORE DEEPENING TO 
OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
SOUTHWEST OF NOVA SCOTIA. A BLEND OF THE AVN AND SHIPS INTENSITY 
MODELS WAS USED FOR THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
  
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 34.7N  75.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 35.9N  72.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 37.1N  67.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 39.0N  62.0W    45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     16/1800Z 42.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     17/1800Z 44.5N  57.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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