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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2002
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW SHOW A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...ENOUGH TO IDENTIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
 
SURFACE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS DISPLACED SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE CLOUD AND RADAR MID-LEVEL CENTER AND THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT LOCATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
AT 360/5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS
THE DEPRESSION RUNS INTO A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
 
INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE NOT VERY
SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THERE APPEARS TO BE SHEARING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A FIVE KNOT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND.  THE GFDL
MODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 35 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION
OVER LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A MODEST FIVE KNOT INCREASE
IN WIND SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 29.0N  88.5W    25 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 30.0N  88.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 30.5N  90.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     06/0600Z 30.9N  91.7W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  93.5W    20 KTS...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     07/1800Z...INLAND...DISSIPATED
 
 
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