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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 05 2002
 
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF 
THE CAROLINA COAST HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS TUCKED IN NEAR A RAGGED CDO WITH TOPS TO -70C...AND THERE
IS SOME OUTER BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE AIRCRAFT
FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 33 KT
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 105/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHEAST
OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A SLOW EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER
THAT...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION.
ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO SAVE THE NHC98 AND
BAMD.  THE NHC98 HAS THE DEPRESSION MISS CONNECTIONS WITH THE
TROUGH AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE
THE BAMD MOVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE CALLING FOR AN EVENTUAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
EASTERN GEORGIA IS PARTLY SHELTERING THE CYCLONE FROM THE 
WESTERLIES AND AIDING FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE GOING TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT BEST
AFTER ABOUT 24 HR...AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SYSTEM.
BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DESPITE
THIS ENVIRONMENT...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL AGREE IN CALLING
FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HR.  WHILE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD MERGE WITH AN
ONCOMING COLD FRONT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 31.9N  76.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 31.5N  76.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 31.2N  75.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 30.9N  74.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 31.0N  72.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  65.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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