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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002
 
DOLLY IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY THE DVORAK 
T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE 
SHAPELESS AND THE EXCELLENT OUFTLOW OBSERVED YESTERDAY IS NO LONGER 
PRESENT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE 
CIRCULATION AND GIVEN THE SMALL SHEAR AND WARM WATER...SOME 
STRENGHTENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY 
UNFAVORBLE AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. 

DOLLY IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGRESS AT 17 KNOTS. THE 
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH  
IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A TURN MORE TO THE 
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AS INDICATED BY MOST OF 
THE MODELS. ONLY THE AVN KEEPS DOLLY ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  AT 
THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST 
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE 
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 13.1N  43.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.0N  46.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 15.5N  48.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 16.5N  49.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N  51.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N  53.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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