HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2002
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 47 KT WINDS
AT 1500 FT TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A 1007 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE.  ON THIS BASIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD.  THEY CYCLONE IS STILL POORLY
ORGANIZED...WITH WESTERLY SHEAR PUSHING THE MAIN CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER.  
ADDITIONALLY...AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THE CIRCULATION
IS STILL DISTORTED...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST FROM THE CENTER
TO THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN ST. AUGUSTINE AND DAYTONA BEACH.

WSR-88D DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE AND MELBOURNE SUGGEST THE CENTER
IS MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION 320/5.  EDOUARD IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS...WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS EDOUARD REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES AND
BETWEEN PORTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS
TO THIS BY TAKING EDOUARD MANY DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AT SLOW
SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE SLOW SPEED...CALLING
FOR EDOUARD TO MAKE A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD CURVE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
U. S. COAST.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND
ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER
INLAND.

WHILE THERE IS WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT EDOUARD CAN STRENGTHEN FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...
ALL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE.  THE AVN SHOWS THE MOST FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH 15-30 KT WINDS...WHILE THE ETA AND UKMET SHOW
EXTREMELY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTS WITH 40-55 KT WINDS.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING TO STOP AT 36 HR DUE TO THE
INCREASED SHEAR.  HOWEVER...IF THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WIND
FORECASTS VERIFY...EDOUARD MAY WEAKEN AFTER 36 HR INSTEAD OF
MAINTAINING ITSELF.   

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 30.2N  79.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 30.7N  80.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 31.1N  80.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 31.6N  80.6W    50 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 32.0N  80.4W    50 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 32.5N  79.5W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN