HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2002
 
MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN 
LITTLE CHANGE WITH EDOUARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRESSURE HOLDING 
STEADY AT 1007 MB AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS NEAR 45 KT.  THE 
CENTER WAS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL A RECENT 
BURST OBSCURED IT.  

THE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS HAS BEEN NORTHWARD...BUT 
EAST OF NORTH MORE RECENTLY.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE 
CYCLONE IS PASSING THE SYSTEM BY...AND SHOULD LEAVE EDOUARD IN A 
VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS 
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...EDOUARD IS LIKELY TO 
RESPOND BY DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST.  THERE IS A CLUSTERING OF 
MODEL GUIDANCE...LED BY THE AVN AND GFDL...TAKING THE SYSTEM 
ULTIMATELY INLAND IN NORTH FLORIDA OR SOUTH GEORGIA.  THE TIMING OF 
THIS WESTWARD TURN IS UNCERTAIN...BUT FORECASTS OF THE MID-LEVEL 
FLOW FROM THE AVN AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT NOT MORE THAN 12 TO 24 
HOURS OF NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...IS NOT 
FAVORABLE.  IN SPITE OF THIS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
STRENGTHENING.  GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 
ABATE MUCH...EVEN AFTER THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS...THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE.  IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE 
THAT THE SHEAR WILL DO EDOUARD IN ENTIRELY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 30.5N  79.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 30.9N  79.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 31.2N  79.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 31.3N  79.6W    50 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z 31.3N  80.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 31.0N  80.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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