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HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2002

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
NON-TROPICAL UPPER LOW.  CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
SIGNIFICANT AND WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

GUSTAV HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AS IT IS STEERED AROUND A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 035/41.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
UNCHANGED AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AND TURN MORE
NORTHWARD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV AND NO 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM. 
HOWEVER...NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESSURE HAS 
FALLEN TO 960 MB.  PRESUMABLY THE CORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING...BUT 
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  THE INTERACTION OF 
GUSTAV WITH THE NON-TROPICAL UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC 
DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GUSTAV AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL 
STORM FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER LOW. 
  
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 48.0N  58.8W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT     12/1800Z 52.5N  54.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     13/0600Z 57.5N  52.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     13/1800Z 60.5N  53.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     14/0600Z 63.0N  54.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
78HR VT     15/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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