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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002
 
KYLE HAD BEEN DRIFTING EAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT HAS BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE FORECASTED
PUSH FROM THE NORTH FROM THE BUILDING ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING AND
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS MOVED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GFS.

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT KYLE HAS WEAKENED A BIT.  T-NUMBERS 
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 2.5...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
DECREASED TO 35 KTS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS TROPICAL AND 
THE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING INFLOW AS WELL AS A PUSH TOWARD WARMER 
WATER...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 33.1N  49.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 32.6N  49.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 31.9N  50.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  52.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  53.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 29.5N  55.4W    50 KTS
 
 
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