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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  58
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002
 
UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WITH 
KYLE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND 
IS NOW ABOUT 130 NM AWAY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND 
SAB ARE STILL 35 KT...BUT THE T NUMBERS ARE LOWER...AND I HAVE MY 
DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER KYLE IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.  A QUIKSCAT 
PASS JUST IN HAS A COUPLE OF SUSPECT 35 KT VECTORS...BUT LOTS AT 30 
KT...ENOUGH TO PRESUME THAT THERE ARE 35 KT WINDS BELOW THE 
RESOLUTION OF THE SCATTEROMETER...SO KYLE REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM 
FOR NOW.

FOR THE LAST TWELVE HOURS KYLE HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO 
THE NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  THE MID-LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTER THAT KYLE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...LEAVING KYLE EMBEDDED WITHIN 
A LARGER ANTICYCLONE CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES.  THE GFS AND GFDL 
MEANDER KYLE IN MORE OR LESS ITS CURRENT LOCATION FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS.  THE NOGAPS STILL TAKES KYLE OUT TO SEA...JUST BEYOND 
OUR THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THIS MODEL IS NOW THE OUTLIER.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS OVERALL MOTION THAN THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF KYLE IS CURRENTLY VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR 
REDEVELOPMENT.  THE SHEAR IS STRONG...AND THE SURROUNDING AIR IS 
RATHER DRY.  CONSEQUENTLY I EXPECT KYLE TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH BEFORE THE SHEAR LESSENS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  AT THAT TIME 
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LIMITED REDEVELOPMENT.  NEAR THE 
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A NON- OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW MOVES INTO 
THE AREA FROM THE EAST...AND IS LIKELY TO CREATE MORE HOSTILE 
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR KYLE. 

HOW LONG WILL WE BE DEALING WITH KYLE.  JUST FOR FUN...I NOTE THAT
THE LATEST LONG-RANGE RUN OF THE GFS HAS KYLE...ITS DECAYED REMNANTS
ACTUALLY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA JUST IN TIME FOR THE KICKOFF OF
THE MIAMI/FLORIDA STATE GAME...ONE WEEK FROM TOMORROW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 31.4N  71.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 32.4N  71.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 33.4N  71.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z 34.5N  71.7W    35 KTS
48HR VT     07/0000Z 35.0N  71.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     08/0000Z 35.0N  71.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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