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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2002

FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES AN APPARENT CLOSED CIRCULATION AND 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THIS BASIS.  

WE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN TRACKING A CENTER FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE 
INITIAL MOTION OF 280/10 IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS 
SUGGEST A CONTINUED MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SLOW 
STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING UNDER INCREASING 
VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
  
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 11.6N 122.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 11.7N 123.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 11.8N 125.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 11.8N 127.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 11.9N 129.9W    45 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 12.0N 134.0W    40 KTS
  
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