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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2002
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING. ELIDA HAS AN ESTIMATED 10
NMI DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
UNFORTUNATELY...I DO NOT HAVE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TO MEASURE THE
EXACT EYE DIAMETER AND THE MAX WIND RADII. ELIDA HAS ALSO WELL
DEFINED BANDING FEATURES...WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW AND OBJECTIVE T-
NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 AND 6.5 DURING THE 6 TO 8 HOURS.
THIS CORRESPONDS TO WINDS OF AT LEAST 125 KNOTS. FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AND WILL PROBABLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
EYEWALL THERMODYNAMICS BUT MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY. SHIPS MODEL BRINGS ELIDA TO 157 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS BUT
THIS VALUE IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD PERSISTENCE.
ELIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST AND IT WOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE REACHES THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 13.3N 107.3W 125 KTS
12HR VT 25/0600Z 13.4N 109.3W 135 KTS
24HR VT 25/1800Z 13.5N 111.5W 140 KTS
36HR VT 26/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W 140 KTS
48HR VT 26/1800Z 14.5N 117.0W 130 KTS
72HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W 100 KTS
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