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TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2002

FAUSTO HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWING A CLASSIC CURVED BAND PATTERN AND A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 45 KT FROM
AFWA.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11.  FAUSTO IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A 
DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST BY LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE TO
PERSIST OR BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST 36-48 HR.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE U. S. WEST COAST.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CONTINUE FAUSTO
ON A WESTWARD TRACK THAT BECOMES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS...WITH THE ONLY
DISAGREEMENT BEING ON WHEN THE TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE NOGAPS...
GFDL...UKMET...AND GFDN ALL FORECAST THE TURN IN ABOUT 36 HR...
WHILE THE AVN WAITS UNTIL AFTER 48 HR.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE IN ALL MODELS AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE STORM...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE AVN.
 
FAUSTO IS SHOWING INCREASING OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND WITH
ITS LARGE SIZE AND WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION IT RESEMBLES OTHER
SYSTEMS THAT HAVE BECOME MAJOR HURRICANES AFTER CLOSING OFF
EYEWALLS.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN THE
STORM BEYOND 75 KT DUE TO SHEAR IN THE 24-36 HR PERIOD.  LARGE-
SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST A DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AT 200 MB ABOVE
FAUSTO..AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHIPS MODEL IS MISTAKING SUCH
OUTFLOW FOR A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL BE  INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN VIEW OF THE CURRENT
INTENSIFICATION AND GENERAL IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE...AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
FAUSTO COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AFTER IT REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH
AND THUS BECOME MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED UPWARD DUE TO THE LARGE
CIRCULATION AND THE INCREASED FORECAST INTENSITY.  A PARTIAL
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HINTS THAT THE WIND RADII MAY BE LARGER THAN
CURRENTLY ANALYZED...AND FURTHER REVISION MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE
NEXT PACKAGE. 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 13.2N 111.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 13.4N 113.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.6N 115.7W    75 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 13.9N 118.8W    85 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 14.4N 121.8W    95 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 127.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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