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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 25 2002
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS BEEN 
IMPROVING IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...WITH GOOD CURVATURE 
DEVELOPING IN THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE PRESUMED CENTER.  DVORAK 
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.5 FROM KGWC AND TAFB...AND 2.0 FROM SAB.  
THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN THE ESTIMATED CENTER 
POSITIONS...AND AS THE SAB POSITION WAS THE CLOSEST TO MY OWN 
ESTIMATE...I HAVE STARTED THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION.

CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS CENTER POSITIONS IS POOR...SO THE INITIAL 
MOTION IS GUESTIMATED TO BE 360/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WIND 
VECTORS FROM THE CIMSS WEB PAGE SHOW A SMALL MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO 
CONTINUE WITH A SUFFICIENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO TAKE IT OVER OR 
VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THE 
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING.  THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY 
THE GFS AND UKMET TO EDGE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...AND THE GFS DEVELOPS A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIS 
PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A TURN TO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE 
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN SOME EASTERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH.  HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO 
LAND...ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 16.2N 101.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.9N 102.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.7N 102.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.3N 103.6W    45 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 105.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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